Pace of Pharmaceutical Innovation Accelerates as Record Number of New Blockbuster Drugs Forecast to Hit the Market in 2018

Twelve new game-changing drugs predicted to achieve
annual sales of >$1 billion by 2022, to the benefit of
millions of patients around the world.


PHILADELPHIA
, March 22, 2018 /PRNewswire/—Clarivate Analytics, the global leader in providing trusted insights and analytics to accelerate the pace of innovation, announced today the launch of its annual "Drugs to Watch" report. The analysis identified 12 new drugs forecast to achieve annual sales of $1 billion or more (ie, blockbuster status) by 2022 using the Cortellis database, which includes information gathered from diverse sources including drug pipelines, patents, clinical trials, chemistry, deals and company announcements. More blockbuster drugs have been predicted to launch in 2018 than in any other year since the Drugs to Watch report began in 2013.

The drugs forecasted to launch in 2018 cover a wide range of therapeutic areas—ie, type 2 diabetes, endometriosis, childhood epilepsy, hemophilia, HIV, migraine, opioid addiction and shingles. Noteworthy examples on this list include:

 

Drug & company

Disease & Impact

Aimovig
(erenumab)

Amgen (USA)
Novartis (Switzerland)

 


Migraine
: Migraine is the third most common disease in the world, with an estimated global prevalence of 14.7% (ie, 1 in 7 people).1 Fewer than 50% of patients with migraine are satisfied with their current treatment. After little movement for many years, the migraine-prevention market is about to undergo a transformation with several new drugs, known as calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor inhibitor.


Aimovig (erenumab) has the potential to contribute to the transformation of the migraine market in 2018.

Biktarvy
(tenofovir alafenamide + 
emtricitabine +
bictegravir)

Gilead (USA)


HIV infection
: 37 million people globally are living with HIV; 21 million of whom receive antiretroviral therapy.2 While antiretroviral therapy does not cure HIV infection, it suppresses viral replication and allows an individual's 
immune system to strengthen and regain the capacity to fight off infections.
 

Expanding access to antiretroviral treatment is at the heart of a new set of targets for 2020, issued by the WHO, which aim to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.2 Biktarvy offers an effective and simple treatment option for patients with HIV.

Ozempic
(semaglutide)

Novo Nordisk (Denmark)


Type 2 diabetes
: More than 425 million people globally live with diabetes, 90% with type 2 diabetes. By 2045, this number is projected to rise to 629 million.3

Despite competing in a crowded market, Ozempic represents a new treatment that helps patients effectively control their blood sugar and significantly reduces the health risks commonly associated with diabetes—such as strokes and heart attacks. It is forecast to perform well due to its superior efficacy and safety versus competitor products.


Shingrix
(Zoster vaccine
recombinant, adjuvanted)

GlaxoSmithKline (UK)

Shingles: It's estimated around one in every four people will have at least one episode of shingles during their life.4 The only vaccine to make the list is GSK's Shingrix (Zoster vaccine recombinant, adjuvanted), which is set to become the market leading shingles vaccine.

Sublocade
(once-monthly
buprenorphine)

Indivior (UK)


Opioid dependence
: More than 15 million people are living with opioid dependence worldwide.5 This disorder is ongoing and is rapidly evolving 
into a public health crisis, with the US government declaring a public health emergency in late 2017.

Sublocade looks set to disrupt the market for medication-assisted treatment to overcome opioid use disorder. It is administered via subcutaneous injection once a month by a healthcare provider and does not require a detox period, thereby addressing the limitations of other treatment options.

 

2018 is also expected to see the launch of the first FDA-approved cannabidiol-based drug (Epidiolex)—potentially opening up a new market for cannabidiol-based medicines—and the first approved treatment option for men with castration-resistant prostate cancer (Erleada) whose cancer has not yet spread.

"Despite political and regulatory uncertainties in the USA and EU markets, the annual Drugs to Watch report 2018 shows that the pace of pharmaceutical innovation continues to accelerate," explained Mukhtar Ahmed, President, Life Sciences at Clarivate Analytics. "2018 is on track to see many new potential game-changing drugs come to market, which will benefit the lives of millions of patients around the world."

Data for this report were compiled from the Cortellis database, the premier source of life sciences competitive, clinical and regulatory intelligence and analytics which includes data gathered from diverse sources, including annual filings, drug pipelines, clinical trials, patents, chemistry, company announcements, deals and conferences.



ABOUT CORTELLIS
Cortellis delivers the unique insights needed to reduce risk and increase success across the drug development lifecycle from early discovery to commercialization and beyond. The Cortellis suite of solutions serves the needs of life science professionals with unmatched content, intelligent search, best-in class analytics and insightful visualization tools. For more information, visit clarivate.com/cortellis.

ABOUT THE DRUGS TO WATCH REPORT
The annual Drugs to Watch report was first published in 2013. Using data from Cortellis, the report aims to forecast which drug launches in a given year will achieve blockbuster status within five years of launch. Following an advanced analysis of this database, a shortlist of drugs is manually researched and evaluated by life-science experts at Clarivate Analytics, who review each drug in its individual context and assess clinical trial results, regulatory data, market data and regulatory designations for each drug.



The full report is available at: http://info.clarivate.com/drugstowatch2018

Follow us on Twitter: @Cortellis | #blockbusterdrugs2018

References
1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3606966/
2. http://www.who.int/hiv/en/
3. https://www.idf.org/about-diabetes/what-is-diabetes.html
4. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/shingles/
5. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24661272

 

Drug

Disease

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Company (HQ)

1

Hemlibra (emicizumab)*,†,|,¶,‡‡

Hemophilia A with factor
VIII inhibitors

496

1,457

2,356

3,362

4,002

Roche
(Switzerland)/
Chugai(Japan)

2

Biktarvy (tenofovir alafenamide + emtricitabine + bictegravir)**,¶, ††

HIV infection

896

2,282

3,387

4,296

3,716

Gilead (U.S.)

3

Ozempic (semaglutide)*

Type 2 diabetes

 

260

862

1,576

2,583

3,469

Novo Nordisk (Denmark)

4

Erleada (apalutamide)¶,**

Non-metastatic CRPC

25

500

1,200

1,600

2,000

Johnson & Johnson (U.S.)

5

Shingrix (Zoster vaccine recombinant, adjuvanted)§§

Shingles

242

537

879

1,202

1,368

GlaxoSmithKline (UK) 

6

Patisiran§,|,¶,‡‡

Hereditary TTR amyloidosis

83

373

726

1,104

1,212

Alnylam (U.S.)/Genzyme (U.S.)

7

Epidiolex (plant-derived cannabidiol)‡|,¶,**

Dravet syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome

19

266

645

936

1,191

GW Pharmaceuticals  (UK)

 

8

Aimovig (erenumab)*,‡‡

Migraine

115

361

685

941

1,170

Amgen (U.S.)/Novartis (Switzerland)

9

Lanadelumab*,†,|,¶,‡‡

Hereditary angioedema

74

350

629

902

1,153

Shire (Ireland)

10

Elagolix¶,**,‡‡

Endometriosis

57

268

549

896

1,152

AbbVie (U.S.)

11

Steglatro (ertugliflozin)**

Type 2 diabetes

 

220

482

769

1,024

1,087

Pfizer (U.S.)/Merck (U.S.)

12

Sublocade (once-monthly buprenorphine)‡,¶,**

Opioid dependence

121

308

439

634

1,072

Indivior (UK)


Table
: Analysis of 12 new drugs forecast to enter the market in 2018 and achieve blockbuster sales of over $1 billion by 2022

Data were obtained from the Cortellis Competitive Intelligence database, accessed March 05, 2018 (Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S). Forecasts are in U.S.$ million.  CRPC=castration-resistant prostate cancer. TTR=transthyretin*=biological drug. †=Breakthrough Therapy designation. ‡=Fast Track designation. §=RNA interference. |=Orphan Drug designation. ¶=Priority Review. **=small molecule. ††=novel integrase inhibitor. ‡‡=first-in-class. §§= vaccine.

SOURCE Clarivate Analytics

 

Nice Insight

Nice Insight, established in 2010, is the research division of That’s Nice, A Science Agency, providing data and analysis from proprietary annual surveys, custom primary qualitative and quantitative research as well as extensive secondary research. Current annual surveys include The Nice Insight Contract Development & Manufacturing (CDMO/CMO), Survey The Nice Insight Contract Research - Preclinical and Clinical (CRO) Survey, The Nice Insight Pharmaceutical Equipment Survey, and The Nice Insight Pharmaceutical Excipients Survey.

Clarivate Analytics

Clarivate Analytics is the global leader in providing trusted insights and analytics to accelerate the pace of innovation. Building on a heritage going back more than a century and a half, we have built some of the most trusted brands across the innovation lifecycle, including Web of Science, Cortellis, Derwent, CompuMark, MarkMonitor and Techstreet. Today, Clarivate Analytics is a new and independent company on a bold entrepreneurial mission to help our clients radically reduce the time from new ideas to life-changing innovations. For more information, please visit clarivate.com.